Stephen

I don't think Mauricio is "writing off" Uruguay - just correctly pointing out they aren't "one of the favourites".

To be honest noone with a wedge of cash to lay down on the Copa is going to look far beyond Argentina & Brazil - but these two offer absolutely no value whatsoever for anyone who just wants to spend a few quid to heighten their interest in the action.

Uruguay aren't a bad choice in this regard given that they should comfortably negotiate their group at least. Of course if they finish second in their group - & Venezuela as hosts might win it - they next face Argentina...

Actually if I'm reading the quarter-final draw right I find it a bit odd.

Gp A 1st v 2nd best 3rd
Gp B 2nd v Best 3rd
Gp B 1st v Gp C 2nd
Gp C 1st v GP A 2nd

So - firstly you could end up playing the same team in the quarters as in the groups - if say the second best 3rd comes from Group A. And secondly - you're better off being second in Group B rather than first since in the quarters you play only a "best 3rd" rather than a second-placed team AND if Argentina win Group C you avoid them until the final!

Back to Uruguay. I said they "weren't a bad choice" but they wouldn't be my choice. In betting terms they are 3rd best & they might turn out to deserve that rating - at least. Then again they might not...

But in punting terms I don't really see Uruguay at 10-1 as much value either. They might go further in the competition than more speculative punts - but at the end of the day if you're only going to be second (or most likely 3rd) you might as well be last....

Looking at the groups:

Group A - Peru & Bolivia look weak to me & unless the hosts bomb I can see both Venezuela & Uruguay having two wins apiece before they meet in their final group game. You can therefore flip a coin as to who wins the group & probably wave Peru & Bolivia goodbye.

Group B - Chile are the hard ones to evaluate but given that they are without both Maldonado & Jimenez - as well as having opted to send Vidal & Sanchez to the World Youth Cup I'm nominating them as relative group whipping boys. Given the match schedule here - Ecuador start against Chile & finish against a Brazil side for whom finishing second in the group might be a good result (see above) I fancy Brazil, Mexico & Ecuador all to progress from this group.

Group C - Well I'm not sure how I rate the best USA side against the best South Americans - possibly I underrate them. But a second string US team? By my calculations of the 19 US players that took any part in the KO rounds of the Gold Cup (their priority) just six feature in the Copa -no Donovan, Mastroeni, Onyewu, Dempsey, Beasley, Ching, Bocanegra etc. - no chance. Colombia don't look that strong either - but I'd expect them to progress with Paraguay in 2nd & 3rd.

My tentative conclusion is that - at similar odds Mexico are somewhat better value than Uruguay. If they finish second to Brazil - as they are supposed too - their onward path actually looks a little better than Uruguay's & they are at least as good a side.

But if I was scratching around for a really speculative bet at very big odds - what about Ecuador? I know all about the advantages of altitude - but they've qualified for the last two World Cups and acquitted themselves reasonably well in the finals (especially in Germany) - unlike the majority of teams that aren't Brazil or Argentina - they aren't "in transition" or already talking about the Copa as "good preparation for the next World Cup qualifiers" & have a match schedule that - assuming Chile don't have great strength in depth - seriously favours their progress.

I'm probably missing something but even allowing for Agustin Delgado not playing anymore & their Copa record being lousy 66-1 seems bloody big odds relative to 10-1 Uruguay...

Argentina will probably win it though...

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