stephen_woodside
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Reged: 02/05/2007
Posts: 1880
Loc: Huyton, Merseyside
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I for one dont think you are mad betting 20euros on Uruguay lifting the trophy. I have also predicted them to reach the final as my predictions above predicts, but i have them to lose to Argentina 2-1. I wish you luck in your gamble and having a bit of money on the tournament also adds extra interest on a personal level so enjoy.
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Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
Edited by stephen_woodside (25/06/2007 17:16)
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Pixy10
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Reged: 07/06/2007
Posts: 25
Loc: Dublin
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Yes, I think you could well be right. Between Argentina and Brazil I would favour Argentina, especially now that Riquelme has been brought back, and Brazil have been denuded of Kaka and Ronaldinho. It should be quite an exciting tournamnent ... looking forward to watching it on Sky Sports, particularly as I'm getting rid of the channel after the Copa! Group C certainly appears to be the 'Group of Death' so there could well be one or two surprises ...
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Mauricio
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Reged: 03/06/2007
Posts: 96
Loc: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Betting on Uruguay isn't what I would call a 'probable win', or else they wouldn't be paying 10-1... Uruguay was for a long time one of the major forces in South American football and they still have some power related to tradition (therefore no one could say you're mad! Uruguay is a two time world champion and the celeste is still respected over here), but they've been through some draught era, lacking new talents.
I think they'll probably get through Group A easily in first (it's the weakest group without a shadow of a doubt...), but from the Quarter finals (where they would play Colombia or the USA, in my opinion) and semi finals (they'll probably play Mexico, Ecuador or even Brazil), I don't see them passing through.
But as I said, they're a team with tons of tradition, and sometimes it counts!
As for Brazil, I don't see the absence of Kaka nad Ronaldinho being the worst factors for the Brazilian team (even though they're definetely incomparable), but I do fear the lack of coordination and strategy as Dunga hasn't shown what he wants to make with this team yet. So far he has only "experienced" players and formations. We are still waiting to see his true Brazilian side, as he believes it shoud be. No one knows for sure what's coming...
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Mauricio Drumond
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stephen_woodside
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Reged: 02/05/2007
Posts: 1880
Loc: Huyton, Merseyside
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Quote:
Betting on Uruguay isn't what I would call a 'probable win', or else they wouldn't be paying 10-1...
Odds regarding Uruguay winning the Copa America at 10/1 is an irrelavant fact, the bookmakers do not get it right every time. What price for instance would you have got for Sevilla winning a cup double this season just gone? What price was Norwich finishing 3rd in the English Premiership in the 1992-93 season, oh and what were the odds on Greece winning the 2004 European Championships despite not having any previous successes going into international tournaments, unlike Uruguay who have reached three Copa America semi finals over the last four tournaments. Uruguay has as good a chance as anyone in the competition although i do agree they are not as strong of late as they used to be. With Forlan and Chevanton however, how can they be written off?
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Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
Edited by stephen_woodside (25/06/2007 23:49)
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jjvirgo
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Reged: 21/04/2007
Posts: 5
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worldsoccer - thanks for the link to the new Copa section. Excellent.
Just come across another decent page on the Copa as well, listing some of the previous tournament heroes...
http://www.midfielddynamo.com/cups/ca/10_heroes.htm
Thought it was quite a good balanced list as its not just full of all the obvious big names.
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Pixy10
member
Reged: 07/06/2007
Posts: 25
Loc: Dublin
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Quote:
As for Brazil, I don't see the absence of Kaka nad Ronaldinho being the worst factors for the Brazilian team (even though they're definetely incomparable), but I do fear the lack of coordination and strategy as Dunga hasn't shown what he wants to make with this team yet. So far he has only "experienced" players and formations. We are still waiting to see his true Brazilian side, as he believes it shoud be. No one knows for sure what's coming...
I agree. Dunga was one of my all-time favourites as a player (who can ever forget the time when he attacked Bebeto at France 98 for not standing over the ball when the opposition were about to take a free kick), but I've seen quite a few Brazil matches recently (admittedly friendlies), and they have failed to gel into a really cohesive unit as yet.
However, given time, I think he'll do a decent job with the national team. But then again, if they fail to shine at the Copa, even a big name like Dunga will be shown the door - remember how Falcao was dismissed abruptly after Brazil's dismal showing at the 1991 Copa in Chile ...
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badgerboy
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Reged: 26/03/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: Bucks, England
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Stephen
I don't think Mauricio is "writing off" Uruguay - just correctly pointing out they aren't "one of the favourites".
To be honest noone with a wedge of cash to lay down on the Copa is going to look far beyond Argentina & Brazil - but these two offer absolutely no value whatsoever for anyone who just wants to spend a few quid to heighten their interest in the action.
Uruguay aren't a bad choice in this regard given that they should comfortably negotiate their group at least. Of course if they finish second in their group - & Venezuela as hosts might win it - they next face Argentina...
Actually if I'm reading the quarter-final draw right I find it a bit odd.
Gp A 1st v 2nd best 3rd
Gp B 2nd v Best 3rd
Gp B 1st v Gp C 2nd
Gp C 1st v GP A 2nd
So - firstly you could end up playing the same team in the quarters as in the groups - if say the second best 3rd comes from Group A. And secondly - you're better off being second in Group B rather than first since in the quarters you play only a "best 3rd" rather than a second-placed team AND if Argentina win Group C you avoid them until the final!
Back to Uruguay. I said they "weren't a bad choice" but they wouldn't be my choice. In betting terms they are 3rd best & they might turn out to deserve that rating - at least. Then again they might not...
But in punting terms I don't really see Uruguay at 10-1 as much value either. They might go further in the competition than more speculative punts - but at the end of the day if you're only going to be second (or most likely 3rd) you might as well be last....
Looking at the groups:
Group A - Peru & Bolivia look weak to me & unless the hosts bomb I can see both Venezuela & Uruguay having two wins apiece before they meet in their final group game. You can therefore flip a coin as to who wins the group & probably wave Peru & Bolivia goodbye.
Group B - Chile are the hard ones to evaluate but given that they are without both Maldonado & Jimenez - as well as having opted to send Vidal & Sanchez to the World Youth Cup I'm nominating them as relative group whipping boys. Given the match schedule here - Ecuador start against Chile & finish against a Brazil side for whom finishing second in the group might be a good result (see above) I fancy Brazil, Mexico & Ecuador all to progress from this group.
Group C - Well I'm not sure how I rate the best USA side against the best South Americans - possibly I underrate them. But a second string US team? By my calculations of the 19 US players that took any part in the KO rounds of the Gold Cup (their priority) just six feature in the Copa -no Donovan, Mastroeni, Onyewu, Dempsey, Beasley, Ching, Bocanegra etc. - no chance. Colombia don't look that strong either - but I'd expect them to progress with Paraguay in 2nd & 3rd.
My tentative conclusion is that - at similar odds Mexico are somewhat better value than Uruguay. If they finish second to Brazil - as they are supposed too - their onward path actually looks a little better than Uruguay's & they are at least as good a side.
But if I was scratching around for a really speculative bet at very big odds - what about Ecuador? I know all about the advantages of altitude - but they've qualified for the last two World Cups and acquitted themselves reasonably well in the finals (especially in Germany) - unlike the majority of teams that aren't Brazil or Argentina - they aren't "in transition" or already talking about the Copa as "good preparation for the next World Cup qualifiers" & have a match schedule that - assuming Chile don't have great strength in depth - seriously favours their progress.
I'm probably missing something but even allowing for Agustin Delgado not playing anymore & their Copa record being lousy 66-1 seems bloody big odds relative to 10-1 Uruguay...
Argentina will probably win it though...
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Mauricio
member
Reged: 03/06/2007
Posts: 96
Loc: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Quote:
Group A - Peru & Bolivia look weak to me & unless the hosts bomb I can see both Venezuela & Uruguay having two wins apiece before they meet in their final group game. You can therefore flip a coin as to who wins the group & probably wave Peru & Bolivia goodbye.
I don't see Peru as a weak team in this group. Actually, I believe they'll be the ones to make Uruguay sweat. Venezuela has never had a good team and certainly hasn't got one now. The fact they're playing home shouldn't be such an advantage, I think.
I also believe you got group B right on. The thing is that I don't know who is coming in 3rd. Mexico and Ecuador is probably going to be a good match...
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Mauricio Drumond
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badgerboy
member
Reged: 26/03/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: Bucks, England
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Quote:
I don't see Peru as a weak team in this group. Actually, I believe they'll be the ones to make Uruguay sweat.
Uruguay 0 Peru 3 - shows how much I know...
I blame World Soccer though - since they gave me most of my initial information on the tournament - at least with regard to the teams that haven't been to a World Cup for a while. To be fair they (or Brian Homewood to be precise) did suggest that Peru might "sneak into the quarters from a weak group" but the general tone of the piece wasn't very optimistic. Venezuela - on the other hand - are supposed to be on the crest of a wave...
For once I wish I had Sky Sports & the opportunity to watch these games. I was hoping they might pop up on one of the old German satellite channels I still have access to - but sadly not. I even took Stephen's advice & tried sopcast - but somehow having apparently downloaded the software makes absolutely no difference to my ability to see the game - 20 minutes later it's still allegedly "connecting".
Edited by badgerboy (27/06/2007 01:20)
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stephen_woodside
member
Reged: 02/05/2007
Posts: 1880
Loc: Huyton, Merseyside
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Unfortunately i could not get connected to watch the game last night either. The more people who are watching the game at the time, the harder it seems to connect to the channel. Take Ricky Hatton's fight in the early hours of sunday morning, i also failed to connect the channel. Obviously a lot of people were on-line for both events. Maybe if we get in an hour before kick off we may have more luck but it is still worth persevering. On the Uruguay result, well i was quite frankly shocked and my predictions for the tournament have already hit a brick wall.
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Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
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Alan
member
Reged: 27/06/2007
Posts: 6
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Hello everyone
iI'm new to the forum, decided to sign up so to keep up to date with the Copa America.
What do you think of Mexico's chances at this years finals?
I was really impressed with them at last years world cup, defenders were all comfortable on the ball and could interchange positions well. Maybe just lacked a top class finisher to take them a stage further.
I was also thinking back to the 1st time i saw the Copa America on Sky Sports back in 1995. I seem to remember Argentina being robbed by Brazil in the semi finals when Tulio handled the ball in the box then scored!!
Alan
Edited by Alan (27/06/2007 10:45)
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badgerboy
member
Reged: 26/03/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: Bucks, England
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Quote:
What do you think of Mexico's chances at this years finals?
It's difficult to say - even more so after my predictions for Group A's opening games proved so wide of the mark!
I too was very impressed with them at the World Cup. Argentina-Mexico for me was the game of the tournament. But their results (& I believe their performances) at the Gold Cup weren't all that great.
I still think they will do OK though. A better bet than Uruguay as a "surprise winner" (as I wrote above before last night's games).
One specific thing that concerns me slightly. I thought Rafael Marquez was Mexico's best player (& one of the best in the tournament) as a holding midfielder at the World Cup but Sanchez apparently tends to use him in defence. At least that was the case pre-Gold Cup - for anyone who watched that tournament is that still the case?
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Pixy10
member
Reged: 07/06/2007
Posts: 25
Loc: Dublin
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Well my bet took a bit of a hammering last night! I had the fortune (or misfortune) to stay up last night and watch the Peru-Uruguay match. First of all Peru looked very well organised, and limited Uruguay to only one real chance in the whole game, counter-attacked well and I dont think the 3-0 score flattered them - in fact they played the way Uruguay have been playing for many years.
As for Uruguay, they were desperately disappointing. The much vaunted Forlan and Estoyanoff might as well have been playing on different planets the way they ignored each other. There was also no real rhythm in their passing. Pablo Garcia, the anchorman, and Lugano the sweeper, were only players to come out with any credibility. Also astonishing was Uruguay's complete inability to deal with crosses and set-pieces in defence. However, the draw between Venezuela and Bolivia still leaves the group wide open...
I would like to see Mexico do well, as they play the right brand of football. After last night's performance by Peru, however, whose to say some other 'outsider' won't emerge, possibly Colombia or indeed the Mexicans ...
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Mauricio
member
Reged: 03/06/2007
Posts: 96
Loc: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Quote:
What do you think of Mexico's chances at this years finals?
I quite like Mexico's football, but I think their chances were drastically reduced because of the loss of their most important striker, Borgetti - he's got a muscular injury on the left leg. But I still think they will qualify to the next round.
As of Uruguay, I'm still positive they will qualify to the next round. Venezuela and Bolivia are nothing more than punching bags. Even being the home team Venezuela doesn't stand much of a chance. And regarding their game against Peru, I thought Uruguay's most problematic area was the midfield. There was no creativity whatsoever from the Uruguaian part. They need a skilled and creative player playing over there to come up with good plays...
Today we'll have Brazil x Mexico. Probably a great match (maybe the best of this first phase). Im already watching our sports channel over here...
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Mauricio Drumond
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stephen_woodside
member
Reged: 02/05/2007
Posts: 1880
Loc: Huyton, Merseyside
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Hi badgerboy, i know its only 60 minutes to kick off but you can watch the Copa America game Ecuador v Chile tonight if you click on Sport5Liive on windows media player. Thats if you read this before kick off or you are watching it anyway. If so enjoy the game/s.
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Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
Edited by stephen_woodside (27/06/2007 23:16)
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stephen_woodside
member
Reged: 02/05/2007
Posts: 1880
Loc: Huyton, Merseyside
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Did anyone see the Mexico v Brazil game last night, if so what are your thoughts on the Brazilian performance. For me they showed signs that do not look good enough to win the Copa America going down 2-0 to the Mexican's. The Brazilians started reasonably well but when they went a goal down, heads appeared to drop. Of course, it's only early days and improvement can be acheived as i expect them to win their remaining two fixtures in the group finishing second but they do vastly need to improve and fast.
Check out brief highlights here... Mexico v Brazil Highlights
In the other game of the night Chile made an amazing fight back coming back from 2-1 down to defeat Ecuador 3-2 with two goals in the last 12 minutes, the 86th minute winner being a wonderfully struck free-kick. Chile v Ecuador Highlights Chile v Ecuador Line-ups
Edited by stephen_woodside (28/06/2007 11:27)
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badgerboy
member
Reged: 26/03/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: Bucks, England
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I didn't get the chance to watch last night - I just found some highlights on youtube before I logged on here.
I'm glad I'm not betting on individual match outcomes as I'd be 0/4 so far. Although Mexico/Brazil might've been 50/50 given the fact that Brazil will be quite happy to finish second as this means they should avoid Argentina until the final. I'm not saying for a minute they were "happy to lose" yesterday just that things somehow (annoyingly to me) always seem to work out that way. Great first goal by Castillo I thought.
I only saw the goals in the Ecuador-Chile game so don't know what the balance of play was like - but good goals (especially from Chile) & they looked pretty good - especially without quite a few of their best/most promising players.
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Mauricio
member
Reged: 03/06/2007
Posts: 96
Loc: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Brazil's game last night was a complete disaster. Not just because of the defeat, but because of the way the team (if we may call it that) played. It looked like the 11 (or 14 as three substitutions were made) players were complete strangers to each other and hadn't had a minute of practice together before. Even during the second half, when Mexico laid back and waited for Brazill to come and explore the copunter attacks, Brazil didn't build too many chances of scoring. Actually, Mexico was the one who had the best chance with Castillo, who missed an incredibly easy shot.
It didn't take much effort for the Mexican team (without many of their most important players) score two against Brazil (and their weak goalie). But the Mexicans didn't show enough football to be considered favourites for the title. Argentina is still the one most likely to win the trophy. Let's wait and see how they do tonight.
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Mauricio Drumond
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Sam
member
Reged: 12/07/2006
Posts: 1063
Loc: North Somerset (returning to M...
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Badgerboy and Steven - have you used Sopcast much? You might want to check your firewall's not blocking it. Otherwise try deleting the files, clearing your internet history and temporary files, and re-downloading and installing it.
Also, most of the channels only get put online about two minutes before the game starts - which can in some cases (like the Copa Libertadores final) be up to 10 or 15 minutes later than the advertised time. It's South America, remember. You can't expect them to be punctual...
Good tournament so far, incidentally. Now, can USA Reserves pull off a shock against Argentina tonight?
Sam
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More fútbol argentino than you can shake a mullet at - Hasta El Gol Siempre
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badgerboy
member
Reged: 26/03/2007
Posts: 727
Loc: Bucks, England
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Quote:
Badgerboy and Steven - have you used Sopcast much? You might want to check your firewall's not blocking it.
I haven't used it at all. I concluded tonight my downloading of the software probably hadn't worked properly but I usually (or at least used to) get messages if I was doing something my firewall didn't want me to.
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